Lead, Commercial Forecasting & Assessments

Lead, Commercial Forecasting & Assessments

Your Position:

The Lead, Commercial Forecasting & Assessments is a data-driven, analytical role responsible for developing and maintaining high-quality forecasts and business cases that inform Lundbeck Canada’s commercial and financial planning. This position combines analytical rigor, financial modeling expertise, and cross-functional collaboration to deliver forecasts, business case analyses, and commercial evaluations that support operational and investment decisions.

Key Responsibilities:

Demand & Revenue Forecasting

• Develop, own, and continuously refine rolling short-, mid-, and long-term forecasts for in-market and pipeline assets.
• Integrate key assumptions, market trends, share data, competitive landscape, GTN (gross-to-net) inputs, and patient/epidemiology models into forecast designs.
• Build scenario-based forecasts (best/base/worst) aligned with brand strategies, access pathways, and investment priorities, ensuring outputs directly inform financial planning and operational alignment.
• Develop event-driven forecasts that quantify the revenue impact of key milestones such as new indications, access outcomes, competitive entries, and lifecycle changes.
• Introduce and manage forecasting tools and methodologies (e.g., patient-based models, AI/BI dashboards) to enhance accuracy, transparency, and efficiency.
• Deliver demand-level forecasts that support sales quota setting, financial planning, and supply chain operations.

Commercial Assessments

• Leverage forecasting outputs and market analysis to support evaluation of growth opportunities across brands, channels, and therapeutic areas.
• Lead the development of robust financial business cases for growth initiatives, pipeline launches, and business development opportunities.
• Coordinate cross-functional collaboration to validate assumptions, stress-test scenarios, and ensure recommendations are data-driven and financially sound.

Governance & Continuous Improvement

• Establish strong governance and process discipline across all forecasting activities, ensuring transparency, reproducibility, and alignment across Commercial, Finance, and Supply Chain functions.
• Support Finance with gross-to-net (GTN) forecasting and accrual processes; including modeling, tracking, and recommending monthly GTN adjustments and accruals.
• Drive continuous improvement through process optimization, automation, and adoption of advanced analytical tools to improve forecast accuracy and efficiency.
• Own the forecasting calendar and operating rhythm, coordinating annual budget, mid-term plan, monthly rolling forecasts, and executive review cycles. Ensure timely alignment on assumptions, demand curves, and presentation materials for senior management discussions.

Position Qualifications:

Education/Experience:

• Bachelor’s degree in business, Economics, Finance, Life Sciences, or a related quantitative field is required.
• 8–12 years of progressive experience in commercial forecasting, business analytics, or commercial finance, ideally within the pharmaceutical or biotechnology industry.
• Demonstrated expertise in developing and managing demand and revenue forecasts for both in-market and pipeline products.
• Strong knowledge of Canadian pharmaceutical market dynamics, including PMPRB and pCPA.
• Proven success in leading cross-functional collaboration with Commercial, Finance, Market Access, and Supply Chain teams to align assumptions and integrate insights.
• Experience developing financial business cases, scenario modeling, and long-range revenue outlooks that inform financial and operational planning.
• Prior involvement in gross-to-net (GTN) forecasting, accruals, and revenue management processes is an asset.
• History of driving process improvement and governance, with the ability to establish structured forecasting frameworks and operating rhythms.

Essentials skills:

• Advanced proficiency in Excel, including complex modeling, scenario analysis, and sensitivity testing. Familiarity with forecasting software a strong asset.
• Strong familiarity with patient-based forecasting models, epidemiological modeling, and probabilistic forecasting techniques (e.g., Monte Carlo simulations).
• Strong ability to synthesize complex analytics into clear, actionable insights and planning recommendations for senior stakeholders.

Competencies:

• Analytical and critical thinking
• Cross-functional leadership and collaboration
• Strong understanding of commercial performance drivers and financial modeling
• Clear and influential communication in both French and English
• Continuous improvement and operational excellence
• Integrity, accountability, and process discipline

Patient Safety: Report immediately to canadamedicalinformation@lundbeck.com any suspected adverse events or special situations related to our medicinal products as well as any product complaints or information about suspected or actual falsified medicines. Advise individuals experiencing suspected adverse events or special situations with Lundbeck products to contact their physician.

Working conditions:

• Normal Office conditions: YES
• Evening/Weekend commitments: NO
• % of travel required: <10%